Bharat Book Bureau

Subsequent to a sharp slowdown, global demand for aluminium during CY10 recorded a healthy growth of 12 % over CY09. The pick-up in demand and approvals of various stimulus plans by governments across the globe led to a substantial improvement in average global aluminium prices since June2010. http://www.bharatbook.com/market-research-reports/metals-and-minerals-market-research-report/aluminum-industry.html

Apart from China and India which continued their consumption story, countries like the USA, Brazil and few of the European countries also witnessed an incisive rise in aluminium consumption. The short term bounce-back in demand and an improvement in global liquidity indicators helped aluminium prices to remain elevated until April2011. However, expectations of an uncertainty in global demand (owing to the European debt crisis) impacted the rising trend in global base metal prices. Since then global base metal prices continued to soften and remained subdued till date. market to market

As compared to the global situation, over the past decade, aluminium industry in India has rapidly expanded its base and the country?s domestic consumption of the metal has more than doubled growing at a Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of about 11% during FY02 to FY11.

High quality bauxite ore, and low labour cost establishes India as one of the least cost producers of primary aluminium across the globe. Indian companies lie in the least quartile of the global primary aluminium cost curve. Due to its competitive cost advantage, most of the domestic aluminium producers are in the process of expanding their smelter capacities. An increased capacity as against the domestic demand outlook is likely to turn India into a net exporter of primary aluminium globally.

CARE Research’s report on the ‘Aluminium Industry’ provides CARE Research’s forecast on the domestic aluminium industry, which covers the outlook on the domestic profitability of players, cost of production, domestic demand-supply balance and India’s export competitiveness. CARE Research’s forecasts are based on“bottom-up” demand forecasting model based on an in-depth knowledge of the metal industry and interaction with key industry players.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Rising cost to defend price softening
Global aluminium price forecast
Global demand growth to outpace growth in supply
Further addition in new capacities continue
India counts on exports, domestic growth to moderate
Average cost of production
Profitability to remain under pressure

SECTION I: INDUSTRY OUTLOOK
OUTLOOK ON DOMESTIC PLAYER PROFITABILITY
Improvement in realisations perked up margins in FY11
Changes in raw material prices
Profitability to remain under pressure
Cost of production and Realisations forecast

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Aluminum Industry

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